RSG

Intelligent Community Development

Case Studies Fiscal Health

PROPERTY TAX PROJECTIONS – COUNTY OF ORANGE

In 2009, RSG was retained by the County of Orange Office of Finance & Budget to prepare five-year property tax projections for fiscal years 2010-11 through 2014-15 to be used for the County’s annual Strategic Financial Plan.  Core tasks included researching and analyzing new development, property re-sales, foreclosures, building permit activity, and Proposition 8 reductions initiated by the County Assessor and by property owner appeals.  However, much of RSG’s focused research and analysis involved extensive economic forecasting to determine an appropriate methodology for projecting future growth rates for property values.  Unlike prior years when positive growth rates were simpler to estimate, the economic recession, foreclosure crisis, and implosion of the real estate market required RSG to identify and innovatively evaluate key economic factors that would influence how, when, and at what pace the negative growth rate of County property tax values would recover over the course of the next five years.  Deliverables included a comprehensive report, detailed projection tables, and the presentation of RSG’s findings to County executive managers at a Strategic Financial Plan retreat session.